Thursday, March 19, 2015

last word on the election (i promise)

Peter Beinart has a column saying Netanyahu's win means it's impossible to change Israel and one has to turn to external pressure instead.   This apparently means American political pressure, some limited kind of sanctions (occupation products only), that kind of thing.   I think that's a mistake.

The Israeli left is only 6-8 seats from taking control, maybe less.   Herzog needs to go back and continue expanding Labor, maybe adding Meretz (or its members, anyway) or reaching some kind of long-term agreement with Lapid.   That takes him to 35-40 seats and he's already the largest party.   Meanwhile Netanyahu's coalition will be inherently unstable--he has to have at least one partner (Kulanu?) that wants major economic changes and he's totally alienated the US--and he can't be more than a few years from retirement, anyway.

I also think that "pressure" is harder to control than you think.  There's no obvious stopping point.   And it certainly won't strengthen the position of moderates within Israel.

Sometimes you have to take a deep breath and think things over.   Netanyahu is 65 years old.  Sooner or later, he is going to lose.  The question is what comes after him.      Taking a long view is harder than venting, but it's usually more productive.


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